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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.